Predictions in the general direction of THE FUTURE!!

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Maj
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Predictions in the general direction of THE FUTURE!!

Post by Maj »

So where are we going with this? Ideally, i'm expecting maybe twenty or thirty members checking for updates once every couple of days, posting once or twice a week. Maybe a groundbreaking new combo video comes out and everyone comes here to discuss it. Or maybe someone notices something strange in a classic combo video and they come here to talk it over. Or maybe someone has an idea for a combo and wants to know if it's possible, or if it's been done before, or why it's not working. We can even have a thread where everyone shares their capture card reviews/experiences and threads for video editing questions.

I'll be honest: I'm not entirely convinced that this forum idea is gonna pan out. There's a chance that it'll prove completely pointless, in which case i'd end up taking it down in a couple of weeks. For now though, i figure it's worth a shot.

I'm also not entirely sure where it's going to end up, so we'll just go with the flow. At the end of the day, content is the most important thing. It'd be nice if i had the skills to make this forum look more not ugly, but i don't, and i'm sure someone will eventually offer to deal with that problem. In the meantime it's simply not a priority. As long as there's one interesting discussion going on during any given month, that justifies the whole thing, in my opinion.

There's also no reason for me to go out and promote this forum. Eventually all the interested people will hear about it by word of mouth, since the fighting game scene is a fairly small community. This isn't going to become a popularity contest and i see no reason to compete with the online communities that are already out there.

It's just that my favorite part of SRK has always been the threads where the exceptionally knowledgeable/creative people discuss whatever - any minor thing. Why do those interactions have to be so rare?
Last edited by Maj on Wed Dec 13, 2006 11:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Maj »

Viscant predicted that this forum would work for a month or two, but then everyone would run out of ideas and stop posting. Too bad i forgot to save the chat log. But, alas, the idea for the "Predictions" thread came to me the day after the idea to quit IRC and go to sleep.

Anyway it's a fair prediction in the general direction of the vicinity of the future, but i disagree. If people are still releasing innovative SFA ONE combo videos, then we can always scrape together some new ideas for the helluva glitchy new games that get released these days.
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Post by Thongboy Bebop »

I look at this forum as basically a centralized, group version of what we all do anyway: Hit each other up on AIM or whatever in the middle of the night and say "Yo, check this out." It's easier to post up here than wait all day for one of you guys to come on and look at what I'm doing anyway, haha. Usually by then I've lost my momentemum.

N
"If you lose any more weight I'm sending you to rehab." -- My Mother
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Post by Clockw0rk »

check one two
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Post by Maj »

Niles' post pretty much sums up the entire reason for this forum. Nicely done sir.

Ok so i have some more predictions. I've stated before that i have nothing against using programmable controllers or using emulator tools. It makes combo videos more complex, more interesting, and more elaborate. Plus it's the future and nothing's going to stop it. People need to be honest about it up-front but if all of us start making a note of it in any video where we use these tools, hopefully the rest of the community will follow.

The cool thing is that soon everyone will be doing combos with emulator tools and programmable controllers and the need to lie about it will disappear. Of course the best thing about this phenomenon will be the ability to request the inputs for any combo. Like, if you see a combo that looks absolutely impossible, you can actually ask the author to list the entire command sequence. They can obviously do this anytime an emulator macro is involved and they can also do this anytime they use a programmable controller. And if suspect someone of cheating, you will be able to request their precise input strings and test it yourself.

I mean, actually having frame-by-frame inputs in front of you will help to isolate the mechanisms behind a lot of unreliable combos. Sometimes you see a combo in a video and ask the author about it, and the guy says "I really have no idea. I pulled it off once and got it on tape and never found a way to do it consistently." And of course, that's never a satisfying explanation. So this whole trend is good news for combo engine analysis. Japan has had this advantage for years now and it's about time we caught up.
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Post by NKI »

This forum is hot because I'm usually not on AIM/MSN that often, but I wanna talk with all my combo vid homies, and I wanna be able to do that without wading through piles and piles of useless garbage threads.
Clockw0rk wrote:check one two
This forum is also hot because it has been graced by Clooooooooooooockw0000000000rk!!! <3
Last edited by NKI on Sat Dec 23, 2006 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Magnetro »

HOW MANY BEADS ARE IN AKUMA'S NECKLACE?!
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Post by Maj »

Another prediction: Emulators are going to have a huge impact on combo video possibilities (and therefore standards). One major advantage that tool-assisted speedruns have over manually played speedruns is the ability to "manipulate luck." Almost every luck-based event in video games is actually based on player inputs.

Once you have access to save states and once you develop methods for altering emulator replays on a frame by frame basis, you can actually create your own luck. So anytime you have a move that changes when you mash, you can actually configure it yourself and then build a combo on the specific configuration you chose. For example you can create a Magnetic Tempest combo where the rocks end up exactly where you want them to and then you can create a combo that lets you take advantage of that. Normally you wouldn't be able to do anything like this even with a programmable controller because you'd have to do the same thing a hundred times to get the same rock pattern twice.

So there are two main categories of combos that emulator tools are going to revolutionize: anything containing an attack with random attributes and anything where the spacing/timing is extremely flexible. I mean, a lot of combos basically only work one way. They have strict link timing and spacing is very unforgiving. In older games, you can't change your jump trajectory and most of the long combos rely on very tight links so you kind of get locked into a certain path.

On the other hand, a lot of the two-character combos in MvC2 give you a LOT of freedom to do whatever you want. By the same token, it's very difficult to duplicate something subtle with so much going on, and it's even more difficult to test the 80th hit in such a combo because you need so much perfection to get to the 79th. But with save states and replay re-recording, you can create your own checkpoint whenever you want and just go from there.

In other words, any time a combo has too many moving parts, you lose the ability to work on the combo piece-wise (even with programmable controllers). And of course, two-character combos in MvC2 games have an obscene number of moving parts. With emulator tools, you regain the ability to work on such combos on a piece-by-piece basis.

So my prediction is that once Dreamcast emulation becomes as robust as CPS2 emulation, a lot of the current two-character MvC2 combos will become obsolete. A lot of the single-character stuff in classic Meikyo videos might very well stand the test of time but the two-character stuff will look outdated once combo video people start adopting all of the tricks that the tool-assisted speedrun community uses.
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Post by Magnetro »

Majestros wrote:Another prediction: Emulators are going to have a huge impact on combo video possibilities (and therefore standards). One major advantage that tool-assisted speedruns have over manually played speedruns is the ability to "manipulate luck." Almost every luck-based event in video games is actually based on player inputs.

Once you have access to save states and once you develop methods for altering emulator replays on a frame by frame basis, you can actually create your own luck. So anytime you have a move that changes when you mash, you can actually configure it yourself and then build a combo on the specific configuration you chose. For example you can create a Magnetic Tempest combo where the rocks end up exactly where you want them to and then you can create a combo that lets you take advantage of that. Normally you wouldn't be able to do anything like this even with a programmable controller because you'd have to do the same thing a hundred times to get the same rock pattern twice.

So there are two main categories of combos that emulator tools are going to revolutionize: anything containing an attack with random attributes and anything where the spacing/timing is extremely flexible. I mean, a lot of combos basically only work one way. They have strict link timing and spacing is very unforgiving. In older games, you can't change your jump trajectory and most of the long combos rely on very tight links so you kind of get locked into a certain path.

On the other hand, a lot of the two-character combos in MvC2 give you a LOT of freedom to do whatever you want. By the same token, it's very difficult to duplicate something subtle with so much going on, and it's even more difficult to test the 80th hit in such a combo because you need so much perfection to get to the 79th. But with save states and replay re-recording, you can create your own checkpoint whenever you want and just go from there.

In other words, any time a combo has too many moving parts, you lose the ability to work on the combo piece-wise (even with programmable controllers). And of course, two-character combos in MvC2 games have an obscene number of moving parts. With emulator tools, you regain the ability to work on such combos on a piece-by-piece basis.

So my prediction is that once Dreamcast emulation becomes as robust as CPS2 emulation, a lot of the current two-character MvC2 combos will become obsolete. A lot of the single-character stuff in classic Meikyo videos might very well stand the test of time but the two-character stuff will look outdated once combo video people start adopting all of the tricks that the tool-assisted speedrun community uses.


Yeah, if that happens it will raise the bar for combovideo making since just hits and impossible-to-do things won't look cool. Thats when people have to start thinking of new ideas for a combo. That's the only way something will be interesting. So even with frame precise combo making tools people will have to dig hard (harder than right now) to find something new.

O_O
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Post by jchensor »

Honestly, I htink that's why the Japanese Combo Videos are in general "better" than the ones in America. They've been long experimenting with programmable sticks and stuff, so they are forced to come up with crazy stuff. Kysg and Zerokoubou are good examples.

If we get to that point here, I think our videos will be graced with much more creativity than before, as we'll be more forced to try different things.

Let's just hope we combo-video makers don't destroy the SF scene like Apoc suggested we are doing.

- James
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Post by Toxy »

Just wondering how a combo video can destroy sf?
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Post by Magnetro »

I don't think I understand that either...

Shot in the dark**

Does he think that by doing impossible-to-do/non-practical things that we are taking away the urge for people to find new things, or that they will get lazy and only use Bread & Butter Combos instead of experimenting...?

/Shot in the dark**

(in the dark, it all looks the same)
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Post by Xenozip. »

Thongboy Bebop wrote:I look at this forum as basically a centralized, group version of what we all do anyway: Hit each other up on AIM or whatever in the middle of the night and say "Yo, check this out." It's easier to post up here than wait all day for one of you guys to come on and look at what I'm doing anyway, haha. Usually by then I've lost my momentemum.

N
I concur with this post entirely.
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Post by jchensor »

Apoc's logic about Combo Videos destroying SF is similar to, say, John Wooden hating on Slam Dunks. Apoc mentioned that Combo Videos provide this unrealistic expectation to be flashy, and people stop learning how to play "fundamentally" and just focus on Combos. Combo Videos, in other words, perpetuate this desire to be flashy instead of solid due to how awesome they are. ^_^

In any case, I think he was way off base with that remark, as there is little to no evidence to support it.

- James
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Post by Xenozip. »

Actually, I've found people generally have two reactions to super amazingly difficult execution.

A) "Wow, that was amazing and they are my new hero. I want to x-copy that." -- and actually work harder.

B) "Holy hell, I can't do that! That's bullshit!" -- and get discouraged.

But I disagree with Apoc based on the fact that there's a larger amount of high quality match videos that are just as easily accessible. And match videos show what's realistically possible/probable and also display strategy, not just combos.

I find that the true source for people being "training mode knuckleheads" is the fact that they get no local competition due to arcades being absent or stagnant. Like with Melty Blood, I've witnessed first hand how terrible people can be at that game because they don't get any comp, yet these same players have learned to execute advanced combos on the fly. Thus, the training mode knucklehead is born.

[Edit]: I personally feel video games that take competition to extreme heights can and should be respected/treated as a sport would be. Combo/match videos are a form of exhibition->spectating as much as they are a form of teaching.
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Post by ShinjiGohan »

>.< I'm a training mode knucklehead.
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Post by Magnetro »

Me too, even though I have good comp all around me (hahaha). I don't even have a stick anymore!

> James Chen - I see what he was saying, but I don't think that affects the mvc2 people, they still cheese and turtle when it comes to playing seriously. Especially in tourneys.
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Post by jchensor »

Totally. To continue with my basketball analogies, I totally see Combo Videos as being Slam Dunk contests. They are awesome, and some of those dunks performed by Vince Carter, Michael Jordan, and Dominique Wilkins will be watched forever, but the dunk contest never won anyone a championship. Nor does anyone believe it ever will.

So there are Combo Videos I can watch forever, 'cause they are awesome. But I'm smart enough to separate Combo Videos from actual gameplay. I am actually shocked that someone like Apoc could even believe that people can get the two confused, to be honest.

- James
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Post by Xenozip. »

Hmmm... I believe a lot of 'the mass' can get the two confused. But that's because I know the general public's thought-depth is fairly shallow. I'm not saying that's the way it is, but I can see how it would be easy to assume that the general public would assume the wrong thing and/or get confused. Because a certain portion invariably does when prompted to think.

Continuing with your basketball theme, people who have never played basketball could get confused and assume that it's easy and a staple feature of the game if they've never tried it for themselves. Meaning, they have nothing to compare it to.

Honestly when I see videos from games I've never played I assume a lot that isn't necessarily true -- until I play the game myself.
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Post by jchensor »

Yeah, I can see that. I mean, you watch a video for MeltyBlood, and since I know nothing about MeltyBlood, what can I really take from the Combo Video? For all I know, they are hella impractical, or they could all be very basic combos that you use all the time.

I dunno. As one who used to love making Combo Videos, it's just hard to sit here and have someone accuse that Combo Videos could be ruining Street Fighter. ^_^ I mean, though we've acknowledged that it can be confusing to those who don't know, I still don't think it even approaches ruining Street Fighter.

- James
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Post by Maj »

In retrospect, that whole thing seems like kind of an overblown accident. Apoc was using Thongboy Bebop's brilliant essay as an excuse to rant about the game selection at Evo. I don't think he meant to insult the people who make combo videos. It was only one statement in a giant dissertation, and it comes off as unnecessary at worst. Here's an excerpt ...
Apoc wrote:SF, the way it was when it was something special, was not this watered down and rather uninteresting aspect of the "Fighting game community." It WAS the fighting game community. Then folks lost all respect for the way America does things. Too much respect for non-original(read:biting) techniques and combo videos full of impractical nonsense. Too much respect for good players winning ONLY with top tier and YES, I'm talking about the Japanese as well. Too little respect is given to innovators. Let's not forget that no true respect is given to a game because of its' merits any longer. A game is rated by how many ppl play it and other such idiotic criteria.
Anyway a couple of people objected (in the original thread) to that statement about combo videos. Apoc never followed up with another post so i don't think he had a real vendetta against us. Just a passing grumpy comment or something.
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Post by Xenozip. »

I'm very certain that combo videos help promote interest in games.

I've personally picked up some fighting games just simply because I saw a combo video of them (Melty Blood, Garou, Jojo's, LB2). There's probably lots of people who check out combo videos just to "see what the game is about", and if it interests them then they might just pick it up.

Hell, a lot of newer Japanese fighting game trailers have demonstrated rather extensive/long/powerful combos. I remember watching the trailer for Big Bang Beat and my brother noted how they were demonstrating huge combos that do upwards of 50% damage as if that was a desirable feature/attraction for the game.

The only possible way I could see it having a negative impact would be to demonstrate only brokeness to an extreme measure. If all anyone tried promoting XvSF with was combo clips of Cyclops doing his easy-mode infinites then I doubt very much that people would take a sudden interest in the game (because it "looks broken").

Though people should realize combo videos are not the same as live action tournaments and casuals. That's why a healthy dose of match videos is nice to help spread awareness about a game.
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Post by jchensor »

I'm positive it was a different thread he also commented on that. Because he said, like, 5 things in 5 sentences all that cut right to my heart. Hated on Combo Videos, hated on Evo Staff, hated on Trailer makers, and other things I can't remember. I had to respond to him and say, "Geez, hit me from all sides there why don't you?" or something to that effect. It was a thread about Evo and Alpha 3, as usual.

So he's done it more than once, I'm pretty sure.

- James
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Re: Predictions in the general direction of THE FUTURE!!

Post by Maj »

Between ReveLAtions and CEO 2011, there was over $40,000 up for grabs last weekend. That worries me. I don't really know where these people are getting so much money to burn in this economy, but it can't possibly be sustainable to give away that kind of cash every month or two. I'd feel way more comfortable with $1000 prize bonuses floating around.

I'll admit i'm a Daigo fan, absolutely. But how does it help the scene to hand over $10,000 to someone who's in this country 10 days a year? With $10k you could run well-organized (modest) tournaments for a whole year. If we're setting the bar so high for random double-booked touranments, what kind of foundation are we building here?

I hope this momentum lasts forever, but neither SSF4 nor MvC3 sold as well as SF4. You could make the argument that the web/social/streaming infrastructure we've built on top of SF4's initial success has kept growing, but that's gotta be true of every competitive community. We're still not beating Starcraft/Halo/Madden at this popularity contest anytime soon.

I'm just worried that organizers are overextending themselves too far, because things might get sketchy once expenses/expectations catch up to them. I've seen a few of these groups asking for donations already, which isn't necessarily a bad thing - until supporters start wondering where that money is going. That's an ugly situation you don't want to get caught in. Hopefully these guys know what they're doing and they're not just praying for a miracle.
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Re: Predictions in the general direction of THE FUTURE!!

Post by CPS2 »

There seems to be more and more people (in different cities) running awesome tournaments with streams, commentary, and great players, so I think it has built up to a point where expectations are at a higher level than before, and can realistically stay there. Mainly because it's been done enough times that people know how to do it now, it doesn't really need to be reinvented or anything. Even if streams got too expensive to run, we'd still have people doing direct feeds of top 8 or whatever with commentary.
Massive prize pools, sponsorships, and several international guests tho, I have no idea if that kind of stuff will stick around or just happen once in a while. It also comes down to what the players want to do. I got the impression that Tokido wanted to do this for only one or two more years, but I can kinda see Daigo still playing, as long as there's no major reason not to.
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Re: Predictions in the general direction of THE FUTURE!!

Post by Rufus »

Maj wrote:Between ReveLAtions and CEO 2011, there was over $40,000 up for grabs last weekend. That worries me. I don't really know where these people are getting so much money to burn in this economy, but it can't possibly be sustainable to give away that kind of cash every month or two. I'd feel way more comfortable with $1000 prize bonuses floating around.
...
I'm just worried that organizers are overextending themselves too far, because things might get sketchy once expenses/expectations catch up to them. I've seen a few of these groups asking for donations already, which isn't necessarily a bad thing - until supporters start wondering where that money is going. That's an ugly situation you don't want to get caught in. Hopefully these guys know what they're doing and they're not just praying for a miracle.
I'd think it's a question of sponsorship from advertisers more than anything else, and you probably don't have to look a whole lot further than MarkMan and the TE stick's commercial success. FWIW it's pretty clear that streaming is the new TV, which means that advertising money will get siphoned from one to the other. Though, to be sure, RevaLAtions was piggybacking on E3, and there's overflow from other games like StarCraft and Halo.' Another aspect of streaming is that the number of eyeballs just increased by a staggering factor: The Super Street Fighter 2: Super Turbo side event at RevaLAtions with a ghetto no-audio stream hit 1,300 viewers during the finals.

The other half of it is that there may have been a lot more money on the table than we think to begin with. I admit I was shocked to hear Tom Brady mention a $10k event for DoA in his rant. Perhaps I underestimate the popularity of DoA, but $10k for DoA?! A few years ago, no less.

I'm sure we'll see things slow down in the next 2-3 years, and I do feel that the genre is a bit over-saturated with marquee titles, and that the release schedule has been a bit aggressive, but that's probably just me being an old coot.
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Re: Predictions in the general direction of THE FUTURE!!

Post by Maj »

It's dangerous to compare anything to DOA because what happened with that game had nothing to do with popularity or playability. It just so happened that the same suits who loved Madden and Halo also loved DOA for the same clueless reasons. When Evo held a DOA tournament, the turnout was pathetic. DOA's televised presence was purely a corporate phenomenon that doesn't reflect the game's popularity at all.

And that's not to talk shit about the DOA community itself, because i'm sure they're dedicated like every other group trying to build a scene, but the fact is they're very small. Most of the people who buy DOA games don't give a fuck about finding competition, same as the vast majority of the MK audience.

Plus you can see how quickly those tournaments fell off the face of the planet once their sponsorships moved on. Corporate prize support and sustainability are completely different things. I mean it's not exactly easy to get that money. Sponsors expect attendance, viewership, and participation. If you've got two sponsored tournaments over the same weekend, i can guarantee both of those organizers were forced to write emails making excuses and embellishing numbers just to appease whoever gave them all that money to burn.

It's not too surprising that both sides trying to play nice are discreetly sniping at each other too:
CEOJebailey wrote:LoL at the competition banning stream monsters for mentioning CEO, Yet I gladly allowed my stream to mention the other :).
AlexValleSF4 wrote:Just wanted to congratulate @CEOJebailey on the success of CEO and @teamspooky for streaming EVO this year. Keep doing it big good sirs!
CEOJebailey wrote:@AlexValleSF4 thank you alex. I honestly look forward to watching the #revLA stream archive when I catch up on everything. Hope you did well
AlexValleSF4 wrote:I want to thank the world for watching #RevLA CEO this weekend. Its best when the FGC supports each other rather than to prove who's better.
(In chronological order.)
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Re: Predictions in the general direction of THE FUTURE!!

Post by onReload »

Sigh...it's sad that material that would also fit perfectly into "Community Drama" is just part of the more business-like turn the FGC has taken over the past few years. I don't want to get too cynical, but I mean...if all the big name companies stopped making fighters right this instant, we'd still be very lucky as far as gamers go, when you look at all the stuff that has come and gone. The type of a community that was born in the '90s is gone forever, and not by fault of the players or tourney organizers...It's just that with the way videogames are treated now, no matter how large a stream or bracket you get, it's just not being done for the same reasons anymore.

Anyway...would anyone else call these past few years "The Silver Age of Fighting Games" with me?
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Re: Predictions in the general direction of THE FUTURE!!

Post by Maj »

Shouldn't we wait to see how it ends first? Maybe "platinum" or "plutonium" would be more appropriate.
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Re: Predictions in the general direction of THE FUTURE!!

Post by onReload »

Whoa...plutonium? I thought we were sticking to precious metals here!
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